Odds board
Which asset to play, how to set it up, and how likely it is to play out in your window. We price 40 common perps plans for each asset (long or short, five stop distances, four reward to risk targets) at 1h, 4h and 24h, with what each one costs to run.
Our odds land within 1.3 percentage points of how often things happened, at every probability level.
Loading odds…
How to read the board
- Best long and best short are the plans most likely to hit their take profit within the window, with the stop set outside normal price noise for that window (at least a typical move) and at least 1.5:1 reward to risk. When two tie, the cheaper one ranks first. Direction is your call.
- Assets are ranked by how likely the better of the two is to finish, take profit or stop, within the window.
- When an asset moves a lot, stops of 4%, 5% and 6% join the grid so a plan can still clear the noise.
- Cost to run is per $1,000 of position at 1x: taker fees in and out, plus the funding you pay or collect while the trade is likely to be open.
- The bar splits the odds within the window: green is take profit first, red is stop first, grey is still open.
- In the heat strip, each cell is one plan. Rows are long and short at 1h, 4h and 24h. Columns are the stop distance, then reward to risk. Tap a cell to see that plan.
Odds describe how a plan is likely to play out. They are not trade recommendations, and you decide the trade.