How it works
For BTC, ETH and SOL perps, CLOBr prices common trade plans: the chance each one hits its take profit or its stop first within 1 hour, 4 hours or 24 hours, and what it costs to run.
What the odds mean
A plan has a take profit, a stop and a time window. Price then does one of three things.
- Take profit first. Price reaches your take profit before your stop.
- Stop first. Price reaches your stop before your take profit.
- Still open. Price reaches neither level before the window ends.
The three chances add up to 100%. A level counts as reached when any 1-minute high or low touches it.
BTC trades at 80,000. Long, take profit 81,600 (+2%), stop 79,200 (-1%), window 4 hours. The odds say 31% take profit first, 52% stop first, 17% still open.
What it costs to run
Cost is per $1,000 of position at 1x: a taker fee to enter and one to exit, plus the funding you pay or collect while the trade is likely to be open. A plan that finishes in minutes pays almost no funding; one that stays open all day pays or collects at every funding settlement in that time.
What goes in
Public market data only: 1-minute Binance USD-M perpetual candles, recent volatility and momentum, the funding rate, and the time of day and week. The model is refit every month.
How we check our odds
We score every prediction against what happened, on data the model never saw: each month is predicted by a model fit only on the months before it. Across about 3.1 million predictions on BTC, ETH and SOL from November 2025 to October 2026, our odds landed within 1.3 percentage points of how often things happened, at every probability level.
When we say X%, how often it happens
| We say | It happened | 95% range | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3 to 9.3 | 231,152 |
| 29.9% | 29.3% | 28.6 to 30.3 | 115,209 |
| 50.0% | 51.0% | 50.1 to 52.1 | 46,196 |
| 70.0% | 70.4% | 69.3 to 71.5 | 51,706 |
| 89.9% | 90.1% | 89.0 to 91.1 | 58,932 |
The table above uses the standard take profit and stop levels on the asset page.
The month-by-month results, 40 months from 2023-07 to 2026-10, are on the track record. We publish the new scores at every monthly refit.
Questions
What does take profit first mean?
Price can reach your take profit, reach your stop, or reach neither before the window ends. Take profit first is the chance it reaches your take profit before your stop within that window.
If the odds say 70%, will it happen?
It should happen about 7 times in 10. In our out-of-sample test, when we said 70% it happened 70.4% of the time.
How are the best long and best short picked?
For each asset we price 40 common plans at 1h, 4h and 24h. For the window you pick, we keep plans whose stop sits outside normal price noise for that window and that have at least 1.5:1 reward to risk. The best long and the best short are the ones most likely to hit their take profit. Assets are ranked by how likely the better of the two is to finish, take profit or stop, within the window.
Which assets and windows are covered?
BTC, ETH and SOL perpetuals, at 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours.
How often does the board update?
Every minute, from the latest 1-minute candles and the current funding rate. If the price feed is more than 5 minutes old, we show nothing rather than old numbers.
What is free and what is Premium?
This page, the asset ranking and the track record are free. Premium shows every play on the Odds board and the Odds card on each asset page.